Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Ten in a Row

Ten elections since Super Tuesday with Wisconsin and Hawaii have gone to Barack Obama. He has wiped mat with Clinton. He is outperforming in the big democratic precincts where the most delegates are available. Texas and Ohio are next, where Clinton is widely regarded as having the edge based on the demographics of the two states. Texas has a large Hispanic population that seems to favor Clinton, and Ohio where the economy is a big issue. NAFTA is going to sting her a bit there because of the loss of manufacturing in Ohio.

The key for Barack Obama in Ohio and in Texas is turning out big numbers in major cities, Dallas, Houston, Austin, Cleveland and Cincinnati that have large black populations in the most loyal democratic precincts.

There is no way that Clinton can win with any margin of victory that is worth talking about. Barack could potentially clean up. He's been moving up steadily in the polls after every victory.

If he wins and Hillary doesn't concede the nomination there is going to be a war at the convention. If she loses the next two there is almost no conceivable way that she could win a majority of pledged delegates. That would mean that she is going to try and win with Superdelegates or potentially the delegates from Michigan and Florida. Both would be disasters of epic proportions.

Said disaster is the ONLY way that McCain gets into the White House. Childish squabbling over the nomination would make both candidates look terrible.

Sunday, February 10, 2008

Precinct 250 Gives Obama 6 Delegates and Clinton 1

We walked into the school unsure what to expect. Through a hallway, a couple of steps and a corner later, we entered a relatively small auditorium that was shockingly swollen. Young and old packed tight together with a long line outside consistently feeding the frenzy. It was pure political chaos and this was the bluest vein the neighborhood. Side conversations, confusion and technical difficulties—you couldn’t ask for a more surreal and historical local moment.

The MC had some difficulty talking over the crowd, but managed to utter something to the effect that in all her decades as a local party organizer, she has never seen a crowd this large come to a caucus. This came with cheers. Without any hesitation, I got the sense that this was an Obama crowd. There were no overt gestures to suggest this; sure there were a couple of buttons and stickers, but not at ‘rally’ levels.

The day before, Obama filled the Key Arena 20,000 strong with at least 3000 turned away at the door. Upon hearing this, Barack Obama later grabbed a megaphone and made his way outside to address the huddled group of seemingly starstruck, rain soaked believers. The dedication to the average voter here is notable, and unmistakably galvanizing. I felt the importance of that moment all the way down here in Olympia especially as I casted my vote for him today. Our precinct went 6 to 1 for Obama because we felt as convicted about being in the moment as he did outside the Key Arena with a cheap megaphone talking to complete strangers who couldn’t get inside. He didn’t have to do that, and I didn’t have to vote for him, but he, like all of us, knew the collective importance in doing what it takes to affect real change; that perhaps this simple gesture was a clear shift over the conventional ethos of modern politics. Fucking unbelievable.

Thursday, February 7, 2008

Romney Suspends Campaign

Mitt "Soundwave" Romney has officially suspended his campaign. This news may come as a shock following the infusion of cash that gave his campaign from his personal fortune. There must have been some serious campaign debt to pay off if that is the case.

McCain-Huckabee '08

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

What's So Super About Tuesday?

If it wasn't for the fact that there were so many primaries on one day there would be nothing "Super" about Tuesday. It was more hyped than the Super Bowl though and McCain has made himself out to be the Eli Manning of the day. No one gave him a shot and he has managed to pull off a dramatic upset and has left political prognosticators stunned.

For most of us in the Evergreen State, this Saturday will be a first for most Washingtonians. A Presidential Primary that matters. That REALLY matters for both parties. The Obama and Hillary are in a statistical dead heat, with a slight delegate advantage for Obama. Bill Clinton is coming to Seattle and Barack will also be here later in the week. Welcome to the "other" Washington.

McCain has a substantial lead in delegates and has to be the odds on favorite to win the nomination for the GOP. Washington State should turn out heavy for McCain both for caucuses and poll voting. Ron Paul has done very well in Washington, at least fundraising, we'll see how he does.

Hillary and Obama are going to be the real story this week leading into Saturday.

Check out this little run down on the former first lady. Politico