Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Ten in a Row

Ten elections since Super Tuesday with Wisconsin and Hawaii have gone to Barack Obama. He has wiped mat with Clinton. He is outperforming in the big democratic precincts where the most delegates are available. Texas and Ohio are next, where Clinton is widely regarded as having the edge based on the demographics of the two states. Texas has a large Hispanic population that seems to favor Clinton, and Ohio where the economy is a big issue. NAFTA is going to sting her a bit there because of the loss of manufacturing in Ohio.

The key for Barack Obama in Ohio and in Texas is turning out big numbers in major cities, Dallas, Houston, Austin, Cleveland and Cincinnati that have large black populations in the most loyal democratic precincts.

There is no way that Clinton can win with any margin of victory that is worth talking about. Barack could potentially clean up. He's been moving up steadily in the polls after every victory.

If he wins and Hillary doesn't concede the nomination there is going to be a war at the convention. If she loses the next two there is almost no conceivable way that she could win a majority of pledged delegates. That would mean that she is going to try and win with Superdelegates or potentially the delegates from Michigan and Florida. Both would be disasters of epic proportions.

Said disaster is the ONLY way that McCain gets into the White House. Childish squabbling over the nomination would make both candidates look terrible.

No comments: