Mississippi Goddamn

On March 4th, Senator Hillary Clinton won, presumably, 3 out of the 4 contests that were up for grabs. I say presumably because Texas is largely undecided. After the popular vote accounts for its sixty-five percent, the caucus system kicks in and allocates the remaining 35 percent. Complicated, yes, but profoundly rooted in good ol’ fashion Texas populism. There are over 250 counties in Texas, more than any other state in the nation. The varied nature of caucus venues mixed with the complex calculation of Texas delegates may present either a statistical tie or a win for Obama considering his impressive ground level organization.

It is worthy to note his level of campaign organizing. It’s essentially a hybrid of sorts that includes on the ground activism coupled with cutting edge technological innovations. This is a deviation from the Internet-roots movement Dean unfolded in ’04. What’s different is that the impetus is placed on the individual to act. The campaign provides important technical assistance to precinct activists/citizens and the ownership is handed to them. At the core of this is quintessential community organizing with the attempt to inspire everyday folk to be a part of something, only on a much broader effort with technological innovation and a lot more money. Obama also didn’t frame his strategy on winning dense, highly populated locales; he focused on setting up an organized grassroots effort in every state tapping into existing ad hoc support. He did lose most of the big states, but with minimal damage—he averaged 45 percent of the vote and got a decent proportion of delegates. He believed in small hamlets and large centers.

Nina Simone would certainly be proud of Barack Obama because the theory of his campaign is about hope and the praxis is about the people. Mississippi and Wyoming are indeed ‘small’ states, but he won them, which continues his streak of winning the states and holding the lion’s share of pledged delegates. He inevitably drew a sharp contrast with the way things were and where we should be going. Clinton’s strategy becomes more and more transparent and stuck in the old Establishment ethos of below belt attacks and top-down management. I respect Hillary Clinton and cherish the idea and potential reality of a woman winning the presidency, but she is running a fucking awful campaign.

Ten in a Row

Ten elections since Super Tuesday with Wisconsin and Hawaii have gone to Barack Obama. He has wiped mat with Clinton. He is outperforming in the big democratic precincts where the most delegates are available. Texas and Ohio are next, where Clinton is widely regarded as having the edge based on the demographics of the two states. Texas has a large Hispanic population that seems to favor Clinton, and Ohio where the economy is a big issue. NAFTA is going to sting her a bit there because of the loss of manufacturing in Ohio.

The key for Barack Obama in Ohio and in Texas is turning out big numbers in major cities, Dallas, Houston, Austin, Cleveland and Cincinnati that have large black populations in the most loyal democratic precincts.

There is no way that Clinton can win with any margin of victory that is worth talking about. Barack could potentially clean up. He's been moving up steadily in the polls after every victory.

If he wins and Hillary doesn't concede the nomination there is going to be a war at the convention. If she loses the next two there is almost no conceivable way that she could win a majority of pledged delegates. That would mean that she is going to try and win with Superdelegates or potentially the delegates from Michigan and Florida. Both would be disasters of epic proportions.

Said disaster is the ONLY way that McCain gets into the White House. Childish squabbling over the nomination would make both candidates look terrible.

Precinct 250 Gives Obama 6 Delegates and Clinton 1

We walked into the school unsure what to expect. Through a hallway, a couple of steps and a corner later, we entered a relatively small auditorium that was shockingly swollen. Young and old packed tight together with a long line outside consistently feeding the frenzy. It was pure political chaos and this was the bluest vein the neighborhood. Side conversations, confusion and technical difficulties—you couldn’t ask for a more surreal and historical local moment.

The MC had some difficulty talking over the crowd, but managed to utter something to the effect that in all her decades as a local party organizer, she has never seen a crowd this large come to a caucus. This came with cheers. Without any hesitation, I got the sense that this was an Obama crowd. There were no overt gestures to suggest this; sure there were a couple of buttons and stickers, but not at ‘rally’ levels.

The day before, Obama filled the Key Arena 20,000 strong with at least 3000 turned away at the door. Upon hearing this, Barack Obama later grabbed a megaphone and made his way outside to address the huddled group of seemingly starstruck, rain soaked believers. The dedication to the average voter here is notable, and unmistakably galvanizing. I felt the importance of that moment all the way down here in Olympia especially as I casted my vote for him today. Our precinct went 6 to 1 for Obama because we felt as convicted about being in the moment as he did outside the Key Arena with a cheap megaphone talking to complete strangers who couldn’t get inside. He didn’t have to do that, and I didn’t have to vote for him, but he, like all of us, knew the collective importance in doing what it takes to affect real change; that perhaps this simple gesture was a clear shift over the conventional ethos of modern politics. Fucking unbelievable.

Romney Suspends Campaign

Mitt "Soundwave" Romney has officially suspended his campaign. This news may come as a shock following the infusion of cash that gave his campaign from his personal fortune. There must have been some serious campaign debt to pay off if that is the case.

McCain-Huckabee '08

What's So Super About Tuesday?

If it wasn't for the fact that there were so many primaries on one day there would be nothing "Super" about Tuesday. It was more hyped than the Super Bowl though and McCain has made himself out to be the Eli Manning of the day. No one gave him a shot and he has managed to pull off a dramatic upset and has left political prognosticators stunned.

For most of us in the Evergreen State, this Saturday will be a first for most Washingtonians. A Presidential Primary that matters. That REALLY matters for both parties. The Obama and Hillary are in a statistical dead heat, with a slight delegate advantage for Obama. Bill Clinton is coming to Seattle and Barack will also be here later in the week. Welcome to the "other" Washington.

McCain has a substantial lead in delegates and has to be the odds on favorite to win the nomination for the GOP. Washington State should turn out heavy for McCain both for caucuses and poll voting. Ron Paul has done very well in Washington, at least fundraising, we'll see how he does.

Hillary and Obama are going to be the real story this week leading into Saturday.

Check out this little run down on the former first lady. Politico

The Lighter Side of Camelot

I typically have a hard time finding my muse, but when I read headlines that beam things like Edward Kennedy endorsing Barack Obama, it cues me right up.

This is a big one. For Kennedy, It demonstrates a clean break with Establishment pals, including the Clintons, and serves as a ‘passing of the baton’ to a whole new generation of politicos. The Clinton’s were furiously vying for Kennedy’s backing, but came up short, in part due to Mr. Clinton’s weirdness as of late. As you’ve unfortunately read in my previous postings, my unorganized ramblings are essentially political accounts from a layperson—written with limited knowledge in national affairs. Though one thing is for certain, the double knighting from the Kennedy camp (Caroline Kennedy also officially endorsed Obama) is so defiling to Billary that their only strategy is devout prayer for a surplus in delegates on Super Tuesday.

There is a decent amount of contention in political circles over the meaning of obtaining an ‘endorsement.’ What makes the topic squishy is the fact that endorsements vary. It could mean access to massive voting lists, a one day fanfare that fosters strong media attention or both. Yet, when you land old Establishment kudos that is something quite different and notable. It could mean adding another layer of prestige and a series of power players following suit. A week from Tuesday shall be interesting indeed.

Romney is a Robot

I don't have the energy to write about this fool. See here to view a former picture of Governor Romney.